Risk Nuance

Risk Nuance

Make a plan for risk.

Risk is not a static phenomenon, but rather a tactical and strategically relative and dynamic force in our work, home, and other facets of life.  Life is easier when we understand these facts and how we interact with risk, especially at home.    This dynamic nature of risk changes based on our circumstances, the situation details, who we're with, what our background is, and the season of life we're in.  It's important to have an equally dynamic risk management process in our family.  

Size up your risk.

To illustrate, as I write this, we're under a polar vortex weather phenomenon bringing record cold across much of the country.  In an area a couple hours away, they'll likely see -70-degree windchills with this storm.  As a guy who has spent many years "chasing" weather or at least its disastrous aftermath, I (and some of my colleagues) were all interested in feeling what that feels like.  We can control the exposure (risk) in that environment with appropriate cold-weather clothing, well-maintained vehicles, and such.  The risk, for us in this scenario wouldn't be the cold nearly so much as the drive to get to the cold (through the -50-degree wind chills and ground blizzards).  

We can reduce
risk by good gear
and... 

When we look at that situation and the risk involved, strategically relevant risk comes to mind.  When we were younger (and correspondingly dumber...and less experienced) we probably would have traveled during the storm.  The actual, quantifiable risk was no different, a -70-degree windchill is dangerous if you're young or old.  What was different was us...the consequences of the risk were lessened based on what we had, who we were then, and what we had to lose.  For me, in particular, I wasn't married or had children, so now where a bad outcome seems highly costly, then...not so much (any correlation to why our first responder and military realms have been traditionally filled with risk-taking young men?).  Now, a slide off the road impacts more than just me, it seems bigger and more dangerous than it had just a few years before.  

...training/practice.

Similarly, the tactical risk is relative based on who is taking it.  When I was in the fire department and training "baby" firefighters to be competent on their first front-line assignments, we could see the progression from "civilian" to capable responder throughout the academy process.  Later, on the trucks "in real life" we could see the relative risk play out based on who was in the crew that day.  One fire with a veteran crew who had worked together before...we'd go into about anything.  On the flip side, a similar fire with a different or less experienced set of partners and we'd "size it up" to be too risky for "aggressive interior attack" tactics and squirt water "hit it hard from the yard" to "reset the fire" before making entry.  

Most every risky
thing can be done
safely.

In another example of risk nuance, during a wildland fire situation a few years ago, the overhead (leadership) on the fire had pitched a tactical assignment to one elite Hotshot crew who turned it down as "too risky."  They pitched it to another elite crew...too risky.  Then they pitched it to a lower-level crew who, less experienced, accepted it.  A few hours later, a young female crew member died because of that decision to accept a risk that was beyond their capability and background.  As we go through life, we need to recognize that there are times in our lives and families when we're not well equipped or experienced enough yet to undertake particular situations.  In these cases, it pays to pump the brakes and slow down the situation a bit until we can adjust the variables enough to be successful.  

When in doubt,
send in the dog 
first...especially up
a tree.

In many industries, including the military and first responders, we have equations to quantify risk objectively.  Often, we look at severity, probability, and perhaps other factors.  Sometimes we sum it up with a simple, "risk a lot to save a lot, risk a little to save a little."  We also explore mitigations by changing a few variables in an equation so we can change the overall risk level.  All of this to say, we can learn much from the risk studies of risky professions for our families.  Tactically, we've got many small decisions in our daily lives.  We've also got many less tangible, less physical risks in family and home life.  As you go through life transitions, make sure that you're taking the time to understand the risks - both those apparent and those unintended but anticipatable with deeper research or consideration.  

With you in the arena, from ours to yours...Happy Trails!

Call to Action: 

• Consider your family and home...what are some risks that you had 10 years ago, today, and anticipate in 10 years...what can you do to mitigate some of the present or future ones right now?  
• 1 - ___________________ 
• 2 - ___________________
• 3 - ___________________
• Discussion: Consider what you/your family could/would/should (level of commitment) and start/stop/sustain (action) in terms of risk management...new job, new home, new location, new car, new friends, new activity...take a sized up risk...and go forth.  

Further Reading, Motivation, and References:

- Family Risk Management 

- Starting a Family Risk Management

Instill Failure

Instill Failure

Failure matters.  We grow more from what stresses us or gives us friction than what smoothly happens in our lives.  In other words, we often grow and learn more from our losses than our wins.  To that end, one of the best gifts we can give our children is the gift of failure.  To do so best is to do failure smartly and like anything else we cross the finish line through consistent practice...that includes practicing failure.  We'll talk about how to "best" fail with a few mantras or pointers.  

Study...before you
jump out.

Fail safe.  We talk about how failure shouldn't be fatal or final...that's doubly important for our children.  Coming from a background including jumping out of airplanes and running into fires, having a training/exercise environment to build sound risk management is important.  It's also critical to have someone leading you in those early moments of practice before you get good enough.  In this case, you as the parent need to make sure that those early teaching moments of, say jumping off of something, isn't the roof.  Skinning a knee...necessary.  Breaking your arm in three places...frowned upon.  When you're helping your children learn how to fail...make sure it isn't too physically or psychologically damaging to be a permanent training scar that will hang them up for years to come.  

Try the 
model first.

Fail fast.  When we talk about failing fast, it means playing the game...until it's time to walk away.  It also means setting the conditions for success early and keeping an eye on the end zone.  In a recent Space X mega-rocket launch, the crew had selected a fairly low bar for success and anything north of that was gravy.  That attitude allows them to learn through doing...instead of sitting on innovation for decades until it was "just perfect" before giving it a try.  Another part of failing fast is cutting your losses as we've talked about before.  We've all heard or seen stories of those who may gamble, and get way ahead only to watch it come crashing down around them in spectacular fashion.  Whether it be at the casino table, stock market trading desk, cryptocurrency mouse click, or in your home...once you've won the game, toss in the towel at the top.  

They're not quite
1 horse-power worth
...yet...

Fail forward.  Failure only works when you allow it to help you grow, develop, and move forward.  Theadage, "What doesn't kill you makes you stronger...except for bears...bears kill you" rings true.  I've had friends expand on that phrase that they should be the strongest person ever by now.  Similarly, during boot camp, I remember our military training instructor (MTI) or "drill sergeant" reminding us between bouts of physical conditioning that he might not have the smartest group by the end of our time with him...but we'd darn sure be the strongest.  He made it pretty clear that for each little failure, we'd get stronger...literally because we'd get down and "beat our face" with pushups.  These early lessons in taking failure to move you forward...instead of wallowing in your sadness were huge.  In the moment, those extra pushups sucked to be sure.  In hindsight, that extra "attention" we were shown helped make us stronger for the challenges we'd face later.  It also helped us realize that the consequences of failure weren't that bad...a few extra pushups...I can do that.  While perhaps not as immediate or clear in your life, look for opportunities to understand the consequence, lean into it, and learn from it.  

Fixing a cactus
flat tire with 
pliers.

Fail early.  In those early years, our consequences tend to be smaller (childhood, teenage years, and early adulthood).  In those early years, we also get the benefit of "compound lessons" through failure.  Say we are comfortable with taking risks we can learn from those mistakes and grow, then learn again and grow, and so forth.  I've got folks in our circle who are pretty much the same person (same plain vanilla job, house, car, etc.) as 20 years ago.  I've got other friends who have jumped, bounced, learned, grown, and adapted to exciting lifestyles...that are far from plain vanilla...no sprinkles.   

Another reason to get started early on risk is that the longer we go without failure, the more "shocking" it is to us when it does occur.  When we stack up only wins (every kid gets a trophy) we condition ourselves to only win.  Life doesn't work that way...failure does (and should) happen.  Growing up, I had a propensity to only "play where I could win."  My Win/Loss ratio was pretty good and that served me decently well right up until that first, big, legit loss...and for a time it was crippling, devastating, traumatic.  Now, looking back at the naïve kid I was then, I can recognize that first big failure as one of those "blessings in disguise."  That experience helped prepare some callouses and scars that would be necessary to go through other bumps in later adulthood.  

Feather hunting in Glacier
National Park.

We can build our risk management muscles early through trial and error...but that means you can't be
scared of failure...and you have to take risks.  That is unfamiliar territory for some folks...but rarely is failure fatal...and if it is, you might even get a Darwin award.  Often times we overestimate and dramatize the failure out there which freezes us from taking a risk.  For example, you might talk up a job loss as catastrophic...lose your house, your car, your family.  In reality, "I was looking for a job when I found this one."  Rarely do the real consequences of a risk gone wrong rise to the level we built it to in our head.  

Fail fast, fail forward, fail often enough...help your kids do the same.  Pivoting and learning from failure is critical.  We have had several business "learning moments" where our best-laid plans didn't go according to plan.  We've ooched and switched and continue to evolve...and that's okay.  The setbacks, hurdles, and roadblocks have all been opportunities to learn and grow...if we let them.  Many of those failures have stung...and that's okay too.  We're still here.  So will you be.  Go fail!

With you in the arena, from ours to yours...Happy Trails!

Call to Action: 

• Pick out a couple of areas that you will help your children fail in this month.  Scaffold it and coach them through the failure growth opportunity.
• 1 - ___________________ 
• 2 - ___________________
• 3 - ___________________
• Discussion: Consider what you/your family could/would/should (level of commitment) and start/stop/sustain (action) based on your fear of failure.  What has been holding you back that you're going to try?

Further Reading, Motivation, and References:

- George Clooney "hit it big" when he was 34 with ER.  He went on to say, "You need to have failed a sh*t load - if you have, you never trust success."  

- "Initial failure is common and doesn't imply a permanent dead end.  Learn from failures, try again differently, fail, and try again.  Your odds keep improving the more you try."  Ken Fisher

- Josh Waitzkin in The Art of Learning calls it an "investment in loss" and done right, those losses and important internalized lessons add up over time to success.  

- The Gift of Failure

The One Off Benefits

The One-Off Benefits

The 1st step in
eating an 
elephant involves 
a pop gun.

With almost any decision and committed action, you have unintended consequences.  Sometimes those are not so good as in the story of the Nutria (think, big swamp rat).  In the south, years ago, folks noticed bank erosion was occurring with alarming frequency on some of the creeks and rivers...enter kudzu, a weedy vine-type plant that can serve as ground (well, anything really) cover.  They did that, and it got out of hand quickly, flourishing in the humid southern climate (if you've ever had to mow the "lawn on your roof" you know what I'm talking about).  The folks in the south doubled down and brought in the giant swamp rats to eat the kudzu...and go figure, there were now large groups of Nutria animals that brought their own trouble.  It was a sort of The Old Lady That Swallowed the Fly played out in a public policy example.

Great Panda's
before they went.

Other times, there are unintentional, one-off benefits that are a pleasant surprise...a happy accident if you will.  In this same category, sometimes you end up with one-off benefits that, while not the primary driver of a decision, are known and useful secondary benefits.  When you experience a few of these, you can start to keep an eye out for the win-win opportunities out there.  One example in our life was a couple of years ago when we purchased a museum membership to a regional Nature and Science Center.  Lo and behold, on a road trip, my wife mentioned to the lady at another museum that we were members of the other center and she said, "oh, in that case, you get in free."

Giraffe's have
incredibly long
tongues.

From that happy accident of free admittance, we started digging around a little deeper, and turns out many museums and zoos belong to either the American Zoological Association (AZA) and/or the Association Science and Technology Centers (ASTC).   We are blessed to travel pretty regularly and for years now, have had a pass to the Western North Carolina Nature Center...one of the "one-off benefits" of membership is that we get into hundreds of museums and zoos across the US for somewhere between 50-100% off the entry price.  With a little route planning, we've probably hit some 30-40 zoos and could be nearing 150 museums in the last 7 years or so.  If we were paying full price at each venue, (a) we couldn't afford it, and (b) we'd want to spend the whole day there to get our money's worth out of the experience.  Leveraging the one-off benefits of reciprocal membership and a little detouring, we've been able to make quick stops at so many places...not just the rest stops and gas stations along the route.  

Sue in Chicago

Over the years, we've tried to capitalize on the "one-off benefits" of various items in our lives...and look for those win-win "tie-breakers" in any big decisions/purchases.  We've even started to quantify some of that each year with some of our memberships by tracking our "spavings," or the spending/savings that we enjoyed because we had the membership.  Our "spavings" five months into 2024 are $1,350 saved on $602 spent on memberships.  In 2023 (the full year), we had "spaved" $4,676 on the same $602 spent.  Yep, $602 is a lot of money for anything, perhaps especially for annual passes...but consider the average daily cost at Disney for a family our size is nearly $500.  And, one study indicated the average US family spends $564 in streaming services annually.  When we view these costs in comparison to other relevant examples in most budgets...they're comparable.  When we view the primary and one-off benefits...for us, and probably for you...they're not in comparison.  These one-off benefits, largely of strategic memberships, have paid dividends in our travel/adventure lives.  With a little research around your interests, you'll likely find some highly efficient opportunities out there.  

If it involves lions
have a friend
slower than you.

While we're talking about annual memberships, it's worth mentioning, more of the one-off benefits. Oftentimes, the membership (and reciprocal membership if you plan carefully) have up-sale perks.  For example, our membership to the Omaha Zoo got us into another zoo for free...and in that zoo, we were treated as members there...which meant free parking, free tramway rides over the zoo, complementary carousel tickets, and the ability to see their IMAX movies for free.  On a normal visit, if we were paying full price for entry, all of those activities were up-sale add-ons.  As a "member" (albeit to another partner zoo), we probably saved $100 bucks and were able to take an air-conditioned breather/reset with the kids in the theater learning about penguins in Antarctica via IMAX.  

Art isn't their
"most favoritest"

We've got a friend who has two great passions in life (1) volunteering and (2) fine music.  She combined those in volunteering for the Civic Center...one of the one-off benefits has been "free" shows to everything that comes to town...for years.  She can pick and choose which events she wants to "work" and helps share her passion with others as a docent-type guide.  Another friend volunteers quite a bit with Habitat for Humanity.  The main benefit is camaraderie with other volunteers and a legacy-level "gift" to a family in need.  Through his volunteer service, as a one-off benefit, he's become a pretty handy carpenter which came in handy when he remodeled his own home.  

Don't feed your
brother to the 
extinct animals.

All of the above have largely lived in the "what" category.  The "so what" for us, is that those experiences of early, continuous immersion in novel experiences and cultural treasures have turned our kids into well-spoken, well-traveled, and well-rounded young men.  They can hold fairly high-level conversations on dozens of topics that stump me...and most of the other adults in their lives.  Leveraging the memberships over the years...even when our kids were far too young to "get something out of it" it helped us train ourselves.  It forced us out of our comfort zone of watching the ball game or scrolling on the phone.  It facilitated hundreds of hours of early conversation and language.  Much like osmosis, our kids are sponges soaking up everything we put in front of them.  Those hours and words were all building blocks for our kids' curiosity, love of learning, and capacity for knowledge.  

We're certainly proud of our kids...they're physically/mentally, like their parents, "average" but through continuous immersion in activities that had "one-off benefits" they're doing amazing things.  This whole conversation isn't to brag...but to hopefully motivate and inspire because our path is totally replicable for almost everyone.  Go out there and find the one-off benefits...then leverage them and repeat!

With you in the arena, from ours to yours...Happy Trails!

Call to Action: 

• Pick out a "one-off" benefit that piques your interest...and leverage it.  Whether it's a new membership or something else, just get started.  
• 1 - ___________________ 
• 2 - ___________________
• 3 - ___________________
• Discussion: Consider what you/your family could/would/should (level of commitment) and start/stop/sustain (action) in terms of doing what others don't.  

Further Reading, Motivation, and References:

- Legal benefits at work - we had a legal benefit retainer at work for a while and leveraged the $19.99 monthly fee to get several thousand dollars worth of living will, trust, etc completed for our family.  

Personality Tests

Personality Tests

Sometimes it's
more than meets
the eye.

Chances are, you've had the opportunity to take a "personality test" whether it gives you a color, some four-letter code, or other output, they can be good ways to better know yourself and your loved ones.  Over the years, we've dabbled with several of the tests personally and professionally.  In that time, we've found that they can serve as great conversation starters around the table if nothing else.  We've also found that, to certain extents, they allow us to better understand each other and how we can most smoothly interact with our loved ones.  

They're just wired 
that way!

A couple that stand out that we'll talk about are the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and the Love Languages by Gary Chapman which were particularly useful in our family.  With most of these tests, you answer a series of questions and then score the answers to get a summarized result.  For MBTI, your test questions spit out one of 16 personality types based on intro/extroversion tendencies and other markers.  For the 5 Love Languages, the test questions spit out how you like to be loved...or what your primary/secondary love languages are.  As an example, my wife's biggest love language is quality time,  far more than gifts or acts of service.  Learning from this, spending time with her is more important, or fills up her love tank more than doing extra chores around the house.  As our kids have aged, one is decidedly a physical touch guy...he starts climbing the walls if he doesn't get his rough-housing need filled by wrestling with me or his brother.  The other is much more of a quality time guy and we can spend hours just hanging out, the "what" we're doing doesn't matter nearly so much for him.  

Helmets
optional.

We've put together some of these outputs into a Google Sheet that you can use (link below).  We'd encourage you to purchase and read (together) The 5 Love Languages by Gary Chapman and perhaps Please Understand Me II by David Keirsey.  You can order them off of Amazon, or your local bookseller, or, we've found copies of both at the local Goodwill-type stores or libraries regularly enough.  The books help y
ou dive below the surface a bit to where research helps convey understanding.  When you both read the book(s), it allows you to build shared vocabulary between you and your significant other so that conversations about understanding how to best love your loved ones become more informed.  The continued study helps you become a Ph.D. in your spouse, it renews your "pursuit" of them in new ways, and on shared new levels...those are good things.  

You might be
Batman!

Once you've got your results, you can do an internet search for "MBTI Celebrity Match" and take a look at some of the examples it gives you.  In doing this, I came out with Dirty Harry and McGyver.  The lighthearted look through the celebrity/fictional character angle helps you spur the conversation ahead... more than some of the drier results-only content out there.  When we think, and talk about, how such-and-such fictional character would interact with some other fictional character (they can be stand-ins for you and your spouse, since sometimes the challenges you're having are more navigable when we remove some of the personal emotion), we may plant a seed for interacting in a more healthy way with your loved ones.  

Sometimes you have to 
start over to move 
ahead.

Beyond these two, you can look at the Strengt
hs Finders, a great one from Focus on the Family (link below), or KnowAndLove (link below) especially geared toward kids.  There are plenty of others out there, most accessible with a quick Google search...and most free.  Remember, these aren't intended to hold over your partner's head but rather to better understand, communicate, and interact with them.  I'd encourage you to take a date night and go through the assessments, then have a meaningful, intentional conversation about some actions you and your family can take based on the quiz results.  

With you in the arena, from ours to yours...Happy Trails!

Call to Action: 

• Pick out an assessment you and your family will do.  Then write down three things that you'll change in the next six months based on the results.  
• 1 - ___________________ 
• 2 - ___________________
• 3 - ___________________
• Discussion: Consider what you/your family could/would/should (level of commitment) and start/stop/sustain (action) based on the insights from the assessments.  

Further Reading, Motivation, and References:

- 5 Love Languages test - https://5lovelanguages.com/quizzes/love-language

- MBTI - 16 Personalities - https://www.16personalities.com/free-personality-test 

- MBTI Celebrity Match - https://careerassessmentsite.com/celebrity-personality-types/myers-briggs-types/mbti-types/ 

- Focus on the Family - https://www.focusonthefamily.com/parenting/navigate-family-differences-with-this-personality-quiz/ 

- Know and Love - https://knowandlove.com/ 

Forest for the Trees - First Things First

Forest for the Trees - First Things First

The road to 
first things 
may be narrow.

These topics have been discussed for years by many wonderfully smart people.  It's been illustrated in examples with rocks as priorities and other clever ways.  The idea that we overlook the simple and obvious because we're so distracted in the moment is telling about our society.  On the other side, we talk about "first things first" and how we should prioritize the important things in our lives.  Today's post hopefully gets you thinking about how we're so consumed in what we think are the first things that we miss the actual first things.  

The forest 
may need a 
bike to 
navigate it.

We half-joke in wildland fire profession that we spend more time/energy/money in putting the fire out than the values we save (homes and such) that it'd consume if we just let it burn itself out...and that we probably kill more trees with all the paperwork than the forest fire burned up.  In another example, we got a $.55 cent stamped letter letting us know that we had a $.15 cent rebate at our local hardware store.  Some of these items illustrate the lack of a clearly articulated "desired end state" when we're doling out the tasks or tactics.  If you find yourself saying, "Because I said so," or "Because we've always done it this way," it might be time to really think about if you're missing the forest for the trees. 

There are the quintessential examples of the businessman who "makes it" with his hollow millions, mansions, and monster trucks but misses out on the kids or is on his third trophy wife.  Perhaps he defined his "first things" differently than you or I or perhaps somewhere along the way he let his first things slip under the surface of his career.  

First things
might look
like this.

You've all probably got examples of how we mix up our first things with the second, third, or seventeenth things...trading our attention in the quality time moments with our loved ones for mindless social media scrolling.  It becomes less obvious that we're getting out of balance when we are picking and choosing between several first things...or picking between good things.  When we are surrounded by "too much of a good thing" we can end up having our first things (faith, family) compromised or diluted by our busy activities.  

Sometimes you
just have to
hike it.

In the I'm In a Hurry To Get Things Done by Alabama reminds us that we're in a race to some obscure endpoint but important/point/purpose along the way.  For your family, it's important to have continued conversations regarding both the first things that you've defined and where they are in this season of life - are they still first?  It's also important to call out the trees that may be causing you to miss the forest.  What are the items, right now in front of our family, that are causing us to lose focus or stray away from how we've said we're committed to doing life.  

You might have to 
get creative.

Hopefully you're in a season where you have the bandwidth and margin to really analyze what are those first things...and are you prioritizing/investing in them responsibly.  Is your money (time, energy, effort, focus, attention) where your mouth is?  Do you stated values/priorities actually receive the resource investment to make them actual values/priorities?  If they're not...the great news is that the ball is in your court with the watering can...because the grass truly is greener where you water it.  Take the time to sit down with your loved ones and talk about how you are...or how you get back to the first things leading the way.  

With you in the arena, from ours to yours...Happy Trails!

Call to Action: 

• Pick out three things that your family can work to ensure the first things are the first things...budget and savings at the front of the month, calendar and church at the front of the schedule.  
• 1 - ___________________ 
• 2 - ___________________
• 3 - ___________________
• Discussion: Consider what you/your family could/would/should (level of commitment) and start/stop/sustain (action) in terms of systems to help you keep the priorities in the right order.  

Further Reading, Motivation, and References:

- Meir Kay on Priorities

- Alabama - Hurry To Get Things Done